CBET 4267: 20160317 : COMET 252P/LINEAR
Electronic Telegram No. 4267
Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams
COMET 252P/LINEAR
P. Jenniskens, SETI Institute and NASA Ames Research Center; and J.
Vaubaillon, Institut de Mecanique Celeste et de Calcul des Ephemerides, Paris,
report that, in the wake of the close 0.0356-AU approach of comet 252P to the
earth on Mar. 21 (cf. CBET 4259), it is possible that a new meteor shower will
appear on Mar. 28 and 29. A standard model was developed by integrating the
orbit of the comet back to A.D. 1850 and ejecting dust at each perihelion
passage since that time. After forward-integrating these particles to Mar.
2016, it was found that at no time this year are the densest dust trail
sections in the earth's path. Instead, a diffuse cloud of perturbed
meteoroids ejected during 1894-1926 is calculated to be in the earth's path
during solar longitude 7.5-8.9 degrees (peak at 8.15 deg; equinox J2000.0),
between Mar. 28.0 and 29.417 UT. Dust ejected in 1921 is predicted to peak
around solar lonitudes 8.01 and 8.47 deg (Mar. 28.5 and 28.958 UT,
respectively), while dust from 1915 would peak at 8.27 deg (Mar. 28.75).
Slow meteors will radiate from a geocentric radiant at R.A. = 77.0 deg,
Decl. = -16.3 deg, with velocity V_g = 11.1 km/s. Rates will be low.
В общем, есть вероятность нового потока 28-29 марта. Радиант находится в Зайце, на рисунке показано его положение 28 марта через час после захода Солнца (UT) -- ниже Ориона, наблюдать можно только вечером.
Предполагается, что подошедшая ранее 20-22 марта comet P/2016 BA14
PANSTARRS - фактически аналог COMET 252P/LINEAR
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 2016 17:39:56 +0100
From: "Roberto Gorelli"
Subject: (meteorobs) New comet P/2016 BA14
PANSTARRS and a possible
new meteor shower
To: "Meteor science and meteor observing"
Sorry for the bad English
Today was printed a MPEC circular MPEC 2016-
C192
http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K16/K16CJ2.html
with data on a new periodic comet: P/2016
BA14 PANSTARRS.
This comet has now a near reliable orbit of
around 2.5 month.
Its perielium it's around 1.0 UA.
I calculated the possible linked meteor shower,
here its data:
Right ascension 81.5?
Declination -38.8?
Vg 14.15 km/s
Vh 38.51 km/s
Maximum (2016) 21.0 March
D (MOID) 0.016 UA
The radiant should to be in Columba, around 6?
from Alfa Columba
and around 16.5? from Canopus.
A Southern shower!
This comet it's a the near same place after 21
years, then it can to
be a periodicity with a similar period. Do there
are data on meteor
around 21 march in the past?
Best greetings.
Roberto Gorelli
Эту информацию подтвердил Alexander Golubev (Astronomical Institute of Kharkiv V.N.
Karazin National University, Kharkiv, Ukraine
...
Radiant
RA=81.4, Dec= -38.8,
L= 0.5,
DATA MAR 21 2016,
Vg=14.4 km/s, Vh=38.50 km/s
Только в этом случае заметно будет мешать Луна для оптического патруля ..
